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FUTURES EXCHANGES

May 12th, 2009

A futures exchange is a legal corporate entity whose shareholders are its members. The members own memberships, more commonly called seats. Exchange members have the privilege of executing transactions on the exchange. Each member acts as either a floor trader or a broker. Floor traders are typically called locals; brokers are typically called futures commission merchants (FCMs). Locals are market makers, standing ready to buy and sell by quoting a bid and an ask price. They are the primary providers of liquidity to the market. FCMs execute transactions for other parties off the exchange.
The locals on the exchange floor typically trade according to one of several distinct styles. The most common is called scalping. A scalper offers to buy or sell futures contracts, holding the position for only a brief period of time, perhaps just seconds. Scalpers attempt to profit by buying at the bid price and selling at the higher ask price. A day trader holds a position open somewhat longer but closes all positions at the end of the day. Position trader holds positions open overnight. Day traders and position traders are quite distinct from scalpers in that they attempt to profit from the anticipated direction of the market; scalpers are trying simply to buy at the bid and sell at the ask.
Recall that futures exchanges have trading either on the floor or off the floor on electronic terminals, or in some cases, both. As previously described, floor trading in the United States takes place in pits, which are octagonal, multi-tiered areas where floor traders stand and conduct transactions. Traders wear jackets of specific colors and badges to indicate such information as what type of trader (FCM or local) they are and whom they represent. As noted, to indicate a willingness to trade, a trader shouts and uses a set of standard hand signals. A trade is consummated by two traders agreeing on a price and a number of contracts. These traders might not actually say anything to each other; they may simply use a combination of hand signals andlor eye contact to agree on a transaction. When a transaction is agreed on, the traders fill out small paper forms and turn them over to clerks, who then see that the transactions are entered into the system and reported. Each trader is required to have an account at a clearing firm. The clearing firms are the actual members of the clearinghouse. The clearinghouse deals only with the clearing firms, which then deal with their individual and institutional customers.
In electronic trading, the principles remain essentially the same but the traders do not stand in the pits. In fact, they do not see each other at all. They sit at computer terminals, which enable them to see the bids and offers of other traders. Transactions are executed by the click of a computer mouse or an entry from a keyboard.
Trading volume can be a misleading measure of the size of a futures markets; nonetheless, it is the measure primarily used. The structure of global futures exchanges has changed considerably in recent years. Exchanges in the United States, primarily the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, were clearly the world leaders in the past. Note that the volume leader now, however, is Eurex, the combined German-Swiss exchange. Eurex has been so successful partly because of its decision to be an all-electronic futures exchange, whereas the Chicago exchanges are still primarily pit-trading exchanges. Note the popularity of futures trading in Japan; four of the 20 leading exchanges are Japanese.

DELIVERY AND CASH SETTLEMENT

May 9th, 2009

As previously described, a futures trader can close out a position before expiration. If the trader holds a long position, she can simply enter into a position to go short the same futures contract. From the clearinghouse’s perspective, the trader holds both a long and short position in the same contract. These positions are considered to offset and, therefore, there is no open position in place. Most futures contracts are offset before expiration. Those that remain in place are subject to either delivery or a final cash settlement. Here we explore this process, which determines how a futures contract terminates at expiration. When the exchange designs a futures contract, it specifies whether the contract will terminate with delivery or cash settlement. If the contract terminates in delivery, the clearinghouse selects a counterparty, usually the holder of the oldest long contract, to accept delivery. The holder of the short position then delivers the underlying to the holder of the long position, who pays the short the necessary cash for the underlying. Suppose, for example, that two days before expiration, a party goes long one futures contract at a price of $50. The following day (the day before expiration), the settlement price is $52. The trader’s margin account is then marked to market by crediting it with a gain of $2. Then suppose that the next day the contract expires with the settlement price at $53. As the end of the trading day draws near, the trader has two choices. She can attempt to close out the position by selling the futures contract. The margin account would then be marked to market at the price at which she sells. If she sells close enough to the expiration, the price she sold at would be very close to the final settlement price of $53. Doing so would add $1 to her margin account balance. The other choice is to leave the position open at the end of the trading day. Then she would have to take delivery. If that occurred, she would be required to take possession of the asset and pay the short the settlement price of the previous day. Doing so would be equivalent to paying $52 and receiving the asset. She could then sell the asset for its price of $53, netting a $1 gain, which is equivalent to the final $1 credited to her margin account if she had terminated the position at the settlement price of $53, as described above.An alternative settlement procedure, is cash settlement. The exchange designates certain futures contracts as cash-settled contracts. If the contract used in this example were cash settled, then the trader would not need to close out the position close to the end of the expiration day. She could simply leave the position open. When the contract expires, her margin account would be marked to market for a gain on the final day of $1. Cash settlement contracts have some advantages over delivery contracts, particularly with respect to significant savings in transaction cost.
Contracts designated for delivery have a variety of features that can complicate delivery. In most cases, delivery does not occur immediately after expiration but takes place over several days. In addition, many contracts permit the short to choose when delivery takes place. For many contracts, delivery can be made any business day of the month. The delivery period usually includes the days following the last trading day of the month, which is usually in the third week of the month.
In addition, the short often has other choices regarding delivery, a major one being exactly which underlying asset is delivered. For example, a futures contract on U.S. Treasury bonds trading at the Chicago Board of Trade permits the short to deliver any of a number of U.S. Treasury bonds.14 The wheat futures contract at the Chicago Board of Trade permits delivery of any of several types of wheat. Futures contracts calling for physical delivery of commodities often permit delivery at different locations. A given commodity delivered to one location is not the same as that commodity delivered to another because of the costs involved in transporting the commodity. The short holds the sole right to make decisions about what, when, and where to deliver, and the right to make these decisions can be extremely valuable. The right to make a decision concerning these aspects of delivery is called a delivery option.
Some futures contracts that call for delivery require delivery of the actual asset, and some use only a book entry. For example, in this day and age, no one physically handles U.S. Treasury bonds in the form of pieces of paper. Bonds are transferred electronically over the Federal Reserve’s wire system. Other contracts, such as oil or wheat, do actually involve the physical transfer of the asset. Physical delivery is more common when the underlying is a physical commodity, whereas book entry is more common when the under- lying is a financial asset.
Futures market participants use one additional delivery procedure, which is called exchange for physicals (EFP). In an EFP transaction, the long and short arrange an alternative delivery procedure. For example, the Chicago Board of Trade’s wheat futures contracts require delivery on certain dates at certain locations either in Chicago or in a few other specified locations in the Midwest. If the long and short agree, they could effect delivery by having the short deliver the wheat to the long in, for example, Omaha. The two parties would then report to the Chicago Board of Trade that they had settled their contract outside of the exchange’s normal delivery procedures, which would be satisfactory to the exchange.

PENSIONS MIS-SELLING

April 26th, 2009

How much sales commission is reasonable? This was a fundamental question during the pensions mis-selling scandal. Worse: are the best and most suitable investment products being sold?
There has been a really damaging fall-out from the case in the UK of mis-selling pensions. About 1.1 million people were wrongly advised to transfer out of their company pension schemes. The compensation given to the victims is estimated at £12 billion so far, but this may only be a portion of the damage done. Many individuals and groups have been sold unsuitable pension products that should not have been promoted to them in the first place. There is a real need to protect the investor against the failures of a completely free market.
Who is there to protect the investor? Even the most sophisticated investor requires the assistance of experts. Financial operations need specialist support staff who assist them. Who are these specialists?
Lawyers – due diligence.
Accountants/auditors – examine the balance sheet and account statements.
Bankers provide the finance.
These are part of the old way, those who carry out investment risk management by the orthodox school of risk management.
But does it really fit the 21st century? Even with the “best” experts from the investment banks, lawyers and accountants behind you, you can still snatch failure from the jaws of success.
Given the IPOs and dot-com scandals, the lumbering tiger of corporate governance is only just starting to growl and get its claws out. It can only be a good sign in the long run for the innocent investor.

RISK VANITIES

April 20th, 2009

A robber or fraudster normally takes time to plan their crime. Thus, proper risk management is not a sit-back-and-watch process. Risk monitoring is a component of operational risk management and is a continuous hands-on process. Handling operational risk properly is not a completely reactive process, investors must have a proactive risk attitude and devote their resources accordingly.
This is the first element of risk analysis. Stand on a steady business foundation, and then prepare to leap forward. More investors stood on quicksand, suckered by investment marketing hype – very groovy, but potentially fatal. This is the realisation – a dull, grey, concrete base lets you conduct a more balanced business evaluation. It involves evaluating risk scope and business objectives, then determining potential sources of danger or risk.
The slow and reliable tortoise always gets to the finishing line. Warren Buffett was chastised for investing in bricks and mortar or boring insurance; although it does sound boring, many of his businesses still survive and grow. Maybe “boring” is that corporate steadiness and foundation that the business community would rather shun in favour of the more groovy investments.
A problem that recurs in investment history is that investors tend to have short memories. The fascination with junk bonds, derivative contracts, IPOs and dot-coms came and went just like the Tulip craze in early Holland or the South Sea Bubble in England. This blind buying mania, although rooted in the 17th century Dutch tulip craze, will continue to recur within the tragedies of poor investment decisions. These problems will revisit us in the 21st century.
Every one or two years there is a market fad. Whether it is bell-bottom jeans, wide lapels or pet rocks is anyone’s guess. Every now and then there will be a new technology, such as biotech or dot-coms to dazzle the eye, or some obscure country that demands investors’ money. Salespeople, investment advisers et al. are paid a fee or commission by banks and funds to sell their products to clients.
(analysts’) research was largely and openly used as a sales hook for investment banking clients. Research could also be used to punish companies. In one instance a company was downgraded by Merrill Lynch when it did not get the company’s investment banking business, and in another example, a stock was downgraded to please a competitor.
Many of these investment ventures have not got a slightest hope of winning. People are still oversold on junk.